Sen. Peter Welch joins Vermont Edition to discuss a recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa, the effects of the tariffs on Vermont, and Democrats’ struggle to regain a foothold in Washington.
President Trump’s administration is urging the Senate to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The White House says the bill will deliver tax relief, generational welfare reform, and historic spending cuts. President Trump wants to see it passed by July 4th.
Democrats, meanwhile, are making the opposing case – that the massive policy bill will increase the national debt to dangerously high levels, cut programs like Medicaid and food stamps, and only help the rich with its tax cuts.
On Vermont Edition Monday, Vermont’s junior senator Peter Welch laid out his argument against the budget bill. “That’s why a big part of my time is, how can I encourage or persuade three or four of my Republican colleagues, for instance, to vote no on this bill?” he said.
Welch was Vermont’s representative to Congress from 2007 to 2023, until he was sworn into the Senate. He currently serves on multiple Senate committees, including Agriculture, Judiciary, Rules and Administration, and Finance.
The following transcript has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
Mikaela Lefrak: Let’s start with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. It’s this massive policy bill. As you well know, it’s making its way through Congress, and we’ve heard many Democratic critiques of this bill, particularly around its historic reductions in Medicaid spending. Do you expect the Senate version of this bill to differ significantly from the Houses in terms of Medicaid cuts?
Sen. Peter Welch: Well, my hope is that we kill the bill. There’ll be adjustments that some of my Republican colleagues try to make to mitigate the damage, but this bill is very damaging to individuals in Vermont. But it’s also really bad for the economy. First of all, Vermonters don’t believe they’re going to get a tax cut out of this deal. You know, the tariffs are increasing cost for them, making it very, very tough for business. So, inflation is going to be going up. Second, people just don’t see that these tax cuts, if they’re getting an everyday wage from on a salary, are going to be in any way meaningful. What people do see is that interest rates are going up and. That’s because of the massive increase in the debt. And what are we getting for this? It’s not as though we’re borrowing money to rescue ourselves from the financial crisis of 2008 or get out of COVID. It’s a huge addition to the debt. So your credit card costs will go up. if you’re trying to get a mortgage, and there are already high rates which will be higher, so that, from a macroeconomic perspective, is terrible.
From an actual impact on Vermonters, we’ve got thousands of people who get their health care through Medicaid, and that includes disabled kids, and the parents taking care of those kids in Medicaid is a lifeline. They can lose that health car. Two out of three seniors who are in nursing homes that are paid for by Medicaid, and they can be kicked out of those homes with these cuts. So it’s very, very damaging. Vermont has strongly supported nutrition programs, Farm to School, Meals on Wheels, school lunch, also the SNAP program. It’s about six bucks a day for families that are eligible. It really makes a difference. There’s going to be billions of dollars cut from those programs. Why in the world are we going to do that when the benefit is essentially going to be higher debt and some significant tax cuts to very, very wealthy people who don’t need them and aren’t asking for them and corporations that are already paying record low tax rates.
Mikaela Lefrak: So, there are some tax cuts that it seems like would benefit people who are in lower income brackets, such as, like, no tax on tips and overtime pay. Would you support any of those provisions if they weren’t also part of this massive legislation that also includes things like, like cuts for health insurance and food and food assistance.
Sen. Peter Welch: I would absolutely support lowering the tax rates for working class Vermonters, whether you work in a warehouse or you work in a restaurant. I think you should have lower taxes compared to the Elon Musk of the world. I would definitely favor that. But the vast majority of this goes towards the very wealthy and the corporations. So it’s not going to be beneficial to Vermonters. By the way, when you have these cuts, like Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act, where people get some help paying the premiums if they’re in the gig economy. What happens then is that those folks still get sick. They go to the community hospitals. They’re operating on a thin margin right now, so they’re going to be those hospitals who are in jeopardy now financially are going to be very, very harmed by this, because they won’t get to pay. They won’t get reimbursed for that coverage. What happens is that those folks who are on employer sponsored health care premiums go up in the cost shift that we all know about intensifies. So from a public health standpoint, this legislation is a very significant threat to the well being of the health care system we have here in Vermont.
Mikaela Lefrak: I was reading an article this morning from Politico, and they reported that in the 2024 election, nearly half of Medicaid recipients, 49% voted for President Trump. That’s compared to 47% for Kamala Harris. So basically, a lot of people who get Medicaid are Trump supporters. So what’s going on here? Has there been a failure of communication about the stakes of these Medicaid cuts, or is Medicaid potentially less important to Republican voters than Democrats are betting on.
Sen. Peter Welch: Well, I’d say two things. First of all, on the question of what’s in this bill, the polling shows that when people are aware of it, like 75% are against it, including well over a majority of Republicans, people want their health care. And by the way, Trump claims that there’s no Medicaid cuts in the bill, which is a total lie. So people like their Medicaid. Public awareness is really important so that more people are aware that this is legislation that is going to have a huge impact. This bill takes $700 billion out of the Medicaid program.
The second thing is a very interesting question. This is where I think Democrats have to ask themselves that question, because what Trump did is speak to the discontent that a lot of people have that the system or the economy is not working for them. And in fact, I’m in agreement with that. If you’re going paycheck to paycheck, if you have a car breakdown, if you have a kid who needs braces, you’re not going to be able to pay your bills. So there’s a lot of economic anxiety, in a sense that we do need some significant change. And Trump, I think, very effectively tapped into that. His remedies are catastrophic for the well being of working class Vermonters and Americans. These tariffs are going to increase. Are in already, are increasing our costs. If we start losing Medicaid, you’re not going to have your own individual health care, but it threatens our hospitals. So a lot of these proposals that he makes are going to hurt, not help.
Mikaela Lefrak: You brought up Elon Musk a minute ago. We’ve seen this rift he’s had with President Trump just in recent weeks. Musk has also been speaking out about how this bill could affect the national debt. Elon Musk says the level of debt would be unsustainable. So now, many Democrats find themselves agreeing with a person who for months they’ve been saying should not be as close to the President as he is and who is doing harmful things to the federal government. What? What do you make of this change?
Sen. Peter Welch: Musk is just a larger than life figure. I mean, $400 billion, throws his weight around. He comes in as a so-called Special Assistant, and he then rampages through government with his DOGE. Where he sends out emails to individuals who have been working for 20 years, telling them that they haven’t been doing a good job, and they’re gone. And he demolishes USAID. We literally have food that is in a warehouse with children on the outside of the doors, and we that food is rotting, medicine the same way. So I have real problems with him and his approach and his bullying. On the other hand, there’s certain positions he takes that I favor. He’s for electric vehicles. That’s a really good thing. We should be maintaining support for the transition to a clean energy economy. His criticism of this bill, on the basis of it adding to the debt, is absolutely correct. And what’s so harmful about that debt is we’re not getting anything for it other than funding significant tax cuts. I’m with him on that, and I also see this debt issue is something that we do have to take. We do have to address it. A country does have to borrow at times if there’s an emergency, if there’s a war, but where you’re borrowing just to finance a tax cut, that’s wrong.
Mikaela Lefrak: Recently, my colleague Bob Kinzel sat down with your predecessor in the Senate, Senator Patrick Leahy, who retired about two and a half years ago. They discussed the budget bill. I was struck when I was listening to the tape — he had some really strong words about members of the House and Senate who are not opposing President Trump. As a Democrat in the Senate, you and every single other Democrat can vote against this bill and it can still pass. So the goal here, it seems, is to try to convince a handful of Republicans. How do you do that?
Sen. Peter Welch: Well, first of all, I’m 100% in agreement with Senator Leahy. It’s important because what he’s standing up for is the separation of powers and that we have a government that is based on three competing branches, the Executive, the Legislative, and the Judiciary. And what he’s talking about, and I fear he’s right, is Congress is delegating, abdicating its independent authority under Article One to the President. And let me give two examples. Only Congress can pass tariffs. That’s in the Constitution. Trump is doing it. He was set back in the courts, but he is assuming power from the Congress, and my Republican colleagues, regrettably, are not standing up for the constitutional responsibilities of Congress to do that. They’re abdicating them to the President. Same way with budgeting. Congress decides what the budget is, Trump is disregarding that moving money around or taking money away, like from USAID. So, the danger that we have is that you allow the accumulation of almost absolute power in the Executive branch. And we all know that absolute power corrupts. That’s where in the Congress that Patrick Leahy went to as a young man in 1974, Republicans and Democrats would never have allowed a president like Nixon to impound money and interfere with the congressional authority. So that’s what he’s talking about, and I agree with him, because it’s very painful for me to see my colleagues agree to whatever it is the President wants. A big part of my time is looking into how I can persuade three or four of my Republican colleagues, for instance, to vote no on this bill.
Mikaela Lefrak: Senator, we got an email just now from Will in Craftsbury, who writes that he works at a business you met with the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and other senior officials there in Canada. What was the tenor of that conversation? What were your takeaways?
Sen. Peter Welch: Tourism is drying up. It has had an enormously negative impact on tourism in Vermont. I was with Senator Shaheen, and it really affected New Hampshire. Kevin Cramer, the Republican from North Dakota, has also seen the effect in tourism there. It’s all a self inflicted wound.
First of all, it’s the first time in five years that a Senate delegation visited with the Canadian Premier. We’ve got to spend more time nurturing it. Second, Canada expressed to us, as we expressed to the Prime Minister, our desire to maintain the historically strong economic and emotional ties that we’ve had with one another, but there was a lot of candor on the part of the Prime Minister and the Canadian ministers we met with. Canada is really upset with the talk about the 51st state and about the Governor of Canada. They felt that their really good friend the United States was insulting them, obviously, the words of President Trump. So it has made them think that they have to take steps to have some independence so that they’re not totally dependent on the United States. On the other hand, the Prime Minister stated this, and it was music to our ears, they want to restore the strong relationships we’ve had. Much of that will depend on whether this tariff regime that President Trump is pushing gets resolved.
Mikaela Lefrak: Why do you think there weren’t more Republicans as part of this delegation? There’s so many states with Republican senators that border Canada.
Sen. Peter Welch: It’s tough for my Republican colleagues because they get in the crosshairs of President Trump, and until recently, Elon Musk. Trump will take retaliatory action against anybody who he perceives as a foe. They fear an immense electoral retaliation by someone like Elon Musk financing a primary against them. At a certain point, my colleagues on the Republican side have to make a decision to make. My hope is they’ll come around and make a decision that’s best for the people they represent, as opposed to just appeasing Trump.
Story Written by Mikaela Lefrak & Daniela Fierro, Vermont Public